April 24: Here we go again
As it has been the past few days, we’ve got another level 2/5 (slight) risk for parts of Texas! This one actually extends into other nearby states, but we’re going to focus on the Panhandle of Texas today, where a chance for big hail (over 2 inches) and perhaps even a surprising tornado exists!
Expect isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across the slight risk this afternoon. There’s a weak low sitting in southeast Colorado, a front stretching across Kansas, and a dryline setting up in the southern High Plains. All are triggers for storm development. Instability should build by mid afternoon as the skies clear out and the sun can get us heated up to around 85F degrees in the panhandle.
Overall shear (wind speed/direction turning with height) isn’t strong, but it’s enough to get some organized updrafts going.We’re looking at a mix of supercells and multicells, which could drop large hail, severe winds, and maybe even a tornado or two, especially near where the front and dryline meet in southwest Kansas to the OK/TX Panhandle.
The HRRR model in RadarOmega shows multiple storms in progress by 8PM local time. Looks pretty promising for a storm chaser. Would not even be surprised to see a ‘quality’ tornado somewhere with one of these…could be in for a surprise!
Looking Ahead…
Tomorrow: Level 1/5 risk (marginal) for parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Expecting the Panhandle Region to be upgraded to a level 2/5 later. HRRR suggests supercells forming here, again, with a similar set-up to today. Not expecting much in terms of significant severe weather, but pretty storms are a definite possibility!
Saturday/Day 3: Level 1/5 (marginal) risk for west Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. Fantastic storm chasing areas out there with plenty opportunities to see what happens in the sky. Again, another slow paced, but likely pretty storm day ahead.
Monday/Day 5: A chance for significant severe storms, including big hail, stronger winds and even tornadoes, comes on Monday. Really looking like we’re focusing in on Iowa here. We’ll know more details as this event gets closer, but for now, I’d expect a pretty eventful day in Iowa and even maybe into southern Wisconsin on Monday!
