May 5: Tornado Chances
An active weather pattern is continuing to unfold across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas, bringing the potential for strong thunderstorms and severe weather over the next two days, similar to yesterday.
Yesterday Recap
A severe storm formed near Loving, New Mexico, and tracked to the south and east toward Odessa, Texas. Near Kermit, it put on quite the show. Take a look at the timelapse, photos and videos below.
Today
Map: Extent of the American Permian Basin, basin boundaries from Enc. Brit.
Today, warm and humid conditions will set the stage for thunderstorms across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Storms are expected to develop later in the day in the Permian Basin region, maybe even extreme eastern New Mexico.
These storms could become organized and strong, with some producing large hail and a few tornadoes possible, mainly in the early evening. As the night progresses, storms may combine into larger clusters, moving into northwest and central Texas, bringing strong winds and continued severe weather risks.
The SPC tornado risk probabilities are greatest in the brown circle (map below.)
If we take a look at the RadarOmega HRRR model viewer, it shows a few storm cells forming between Midland and Lubbock. Thinking this is under-doing it and we will see more robust storms than this by 7PM.
Something of important note is the second round of storms, which form farther south. This 11PM run shows that well. Some strong cells are being modeled down near Del Rio and I-10, but current expectations for many of these storms to congeal into a large squall line, bringing a primary risk for damaging winds.
With all that considered, we’ll go ahead and highlight our focus zone today for the area from Midland to Lubbock, with a ‘back up area’ of down there near Del Rio for any late night storms, if need be.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s weather is more difficult to predict due to storms that may linger from tonight into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very humid air mass will move northward, creating conditions for more thunderstorms. Take a look at all those purple and blue colors, indicating 60F-75F dewpoints!
Early morning storms (from Monday’s system) could develop in central Texas and along a lifting warm front in northeast Texas, potentially bringing strong winds or even a tornado risk, depending on how the atmosphere evolves overnight.
By Tuesday afternoon, the warm and humid conditions will continue to fuel additional storm development, especially in central and east Texas south of the warm front. These storms could be severe, with the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The greatest risk for significant severe weather appears to be in northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana, especially if storms organize into a larger cluster overnight or if new storms form along the warm front. In this area, strong winds or even strong tornadoes could be possible. The exact outcome depends on how morning storms shape the afternoon environment.
It’s important to acknowledge this HRRR model run for tomorrow afternoon:
It shows some storm cells popping up in NW Texas, which are those ones south east of the Panhandle. The environment is not as conducive for severe storm development in that area, but it bears watching as a possibly more reachable target area tomorrow!
