May 16: Tornado Outbreak Potential
A significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected this afternoon through tonight across portions of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. The region is at level 4 of 5 risk for intense supercells capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Multiple strong tornadoes are anticipated, with the potential for a long-track, high-end tornado. Into the overnight hours, a squall line is likely to develop, bringing an increased threat of tornadoes and destructive winds, some exceeding 75 mph.
Time is limited today. The Project WeatherEye Field Team is in central Illinois and about to head south. However, we have time to mention a few key details.
Storms with large hail and strong winds are already active this morning from northeast Arkansas to eastern Kentucky, moving northeast. These storms may reach West Virginia and western Virginia by afternoon, potentially bringing hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts over 60 MPH.
As temperatures climb into the 70Fs and 80Fs with high humidity, new storms will explode across eastern Missouri, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and eastern Texas by early afternoon. These storms should produce strong, long-track tornadoes, very large hail (up to tennis ball size), and destructive winds exceeding 75 MPH, especially in higher-risk zones from southern Missouri to central Kentucky.
Speaking of strong tornadoes, the SPC agrees and has placed a level 4 of 5 tornado risk over the area from Sikeston, Missouri to about Lexington, Kentucky. That red zone has the highest potential for seeing tornadoes, some strong. However, anyone in the tornado risk zone, whether it’s a level 1 or level 4, does still need to be mindful of the weather.
Future radar in the RadarOmega app suggests some isolated storm cells forming between 3 and 5PM, then tracking east.
5PM Future Radar
A lot of those storms are in higher areas of supercell parameter, which is a model product that takes into consideration many ingredients needed for severe weather, and plots higher values on a map where all of those ingredients align.
8PM Future Radar
Be sure to have a severe weather action plan today! The Project Weather Eye Field Team will be targeting southern Illinois, then moving east. And as advance noticed: There’s a slight risk in Oklahoma/Texas tomorrow, but it may not be a Project WeatherEye deployment. We value our team’s safety and health, and will not expect anyone to drive 8-10 hours over night after a late night getting from yesterday’s Wisconsin target to today’s, deploying, and retrieving cameras. This value of our health ensures we can continue to do this for a long time. After tomorrow, there are better opportunities for deployment on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday!
Yesterday
The storms in Wisconsin were most robust a bit farther north, however a tornado did strike Mayville, Wisconsin.
The faster than expected nature of the storms, as well as them not exactly going as forecast, prevented a successful Project deployment.
However, we did make our way into Mayville about 5 minutes after the tornado caused significant, widespread tree damage and minor to moderate building damage. It took nearly 20 minutes for a substantial public safety response, likely because most agencies were assisting in nearby Juneau, where a tornado also hit.
