June 14: Active Week Coming

Today

A steady southwesterly flow keeps things active over the northern Rockies and nearby High Plains. As the day heats up, three should be respectable instability by late afternoon. Look for thunderstorms to kick off over the higher northern and central Rockies this afternoon, then push eastward across the High Plains tonight. While low-level winds stay relatively calm, the flow will veer and gain strength higher up, offering 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear—strongest in the northern High Plains. Any supercells that form could have large to very large hail (over 2 inches), with clusters later posing a severe wind threat as they move east. Separately, watch for strong, isolated storms near a surface boundary in the Upper Midwest around Iowa. Even with weaker shear, the instability might still bring occasional hail and gusty winds from the most vigorous storm cores this afternoon and evening.

Today’s Target Area: Nebraska Panhandle

Tomorrow

A subtle trough slides into the central and northern Rockies. With dewpoints getting into the 60Fs, instability should build by afternoon. Storms are likely to fire up in the northern High Plains’ higher terrain, drifting eastward into lower areas later in the day, much like the pattern has been the past several days. Weak large-scale lift will favor isolated storm modes. Big hail is the main problem. A wind-damage risk will also emerge, especially as low-level winds pick up in the evening, sustaining the severe threat.

Since our last post, we’ve had a few noteworthy events. Here’s some photos.

Looking Ahead

Monday, June 16

The central U.S. takes the spotlight, with a wide risk zone from the northern Plains through the Midwest. The Dakotas, Nebraska, and Iowa, especially where yellow and red shading peaks, are primed for intense storm activity.

Tuesday, June 17

The focus shifts east to the central Plains and Upper Midwest. The threat stretches from eastern Nebraska through Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, with the most intense areas marked by yellow and red shading.

Wednesday, June 18

The action moves to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, from Kentucky and West Virginia to Pennsylvania and Virginia, where severe storms are on the horizon.

Thursday, June 19

The threat brings the focus southward and eastward to the Southeast and Mid-South. Tennessee, the Carolinas, and Georgia, highlighted by yellow and brown shading, face potential strong storms with heavy winds and hail.

Friday, June 20

The central U.S. re-enters the picture, with a key risk area from Kansas and Oklahoma northward into Missouri and Iowa. Yellow-to-red zones signal where powerful thunderstorms could erupt.

Saturday, June 21

A broad threat covers the central and eastern U.S., from Texas through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley, with yellow and red shaded regions pointing to ongoing severe storm potential.