May 1: Now what?

Well, May is here, signaling that we’re in the middle of “peak busy season” for severe storms. There’s some opportunities for chasing, streaming, and enjoying the stormy weather over the next few days. It’s nothing like we’ve seen the past two weeks, but it will pick back up again after the weekend. We can all agree that April produced many beautiful storms!

Today - The Target Area

The SPC has issued a large level 2/5 slight risk. Believe it or not, Project WeatherEye is targeting the level 1/5 marginal risk down by Waco, Texas. There may be a slight risk introduced here later, so don’t be surprised if that happens.

Be mindful! A large MCS or squall-like system should develop in the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma vicinity after dark! It will bring with it the chance for very strong wind and very big hail! So watch out as your risk comes after dark up there!

The HRRR model in RadarOmega shows a single supercell forming somewhere in the Austin - Waco vicinity around 4-6pm.

If this scenario happens, I’d expect big hail and maybe even a really pretty storm! We can’t rule out a tornado, but those chances are pretty slim. If this storm forms, we can consider a deployment.

Tomorrow

We’ve got deployment chances in Texas…..again. This time, expecting somewhat disorganized storms capable of hail. The atmosphere will become favorable for storm development in the afternoon and will have respectable amounts of wind shear (30-40knots) for strong supercell updrafts.

The HRRR model for tomorrow indicates some clustering of storms, which will reduce severe chances some, but regardless, it looks like a safe bet to expect some severe thunderstorm warnings in the area tomorrow. Probably will target anywhere from I-20 near Midland, south to I-10 near Fort Stockton, then west to San Angelo.

If today flops and produces nothing in the Project WeatherEye Target Area, expect us to try again tomorrow farther west!